Abstract ID: B21C-03

Location: 104 (Moscone South)

Time of Presentation: Dec 15 8:30 AM - 8:45 AM

Physiological idiosyncrasies and extreme events - two gaps in models of vegetation change
V. P. Gutschick¹; H. BassiriRad²
1. Global Change Consulting Cons., Las Cruces, NM, USA.
2. Biological Sciences, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA.

Gross changes in vegetation - cover, community composition, and biogeochemical functioning - are expected to accelerate with the continued rise in CO2 and concurrent climatic changes. Dynamic vegetation models use primarily statistical correlations, with limited incorporation of process-based equations, to relate climate to the biogeographic distribution of plant species. However, in FACE and similar experiments at elevated CO2, species have exhibited diverse, species-specific direct responses to CO2 in nitrogen uptake, photosynthetic rate, water-use efficiency, and the like. The inter-species differences will remodel competition and a diversity of other ecological processes, thus also the potential distribution of species. The changing spectrum of extreme meteorological events will further recast these processes and their biogeographic consequences. Our understanding of exactly what constitutes an extreme event projected to the biological level remains limited, though some leads are promising.