Global Change Consulting Consortium, Inc.

Global change and water: Projections of global change effects on municipal water supplies, irrigation water availability, and crop growth

 

The document here takes a view complementary to the document on water wedges, found on another page of this Website.   This document does not current incorporate the scholarly references; it does have hyperlinks to some of our own relevant work.

 

   Three components of global change:

   The issues can be developed along two lines:

   Here are some specific comments, plus some component issues - perhaps the issues are already bite-sized, or useful to highlight in developing a comprehensive framework:

Overall, the changes are specific to regions, plant species, etc. - predictions are possible, but with significant work.   Overall crop water use and crop water availability will be formed more strongly by human water management, including land use.

           Many people have had a lot to say on this.  There are some novel ideas to follow up, some important changes for which we need adaptive strategies in water and crop management:

            The effects are often modest but are exceptionally strong over some extensive areas of the wet tropics.  Recycling of water there sustains the high rainfall levels.  Land clearance, such as by deforestation, can break the recycling and cause major changes in climate.  Climate models indicate that clearance of Amazonia will lead to very much higher temperatures (by 8-10ºC) and much reduced precipitation.  Furthermore, the prospects for reversing the clearance are virtually nil, given the feedbacks that cannot be reestablished.  In contrast, deforestation of SE Asia might be reversible.  The high rainfall is sustained largely by water injected into the air from the adjacent oceans.

This whole writeup on water and crops is so long that we forgo identifying people and groups to approach.  We can work on this later.